Consumer sentiment in China has been somewhat pessimistic over the back half of 2023 and the first half 2024. One category that reflects the propensity of consumers to spend their disposable income is travel and we looked at some recent travel data from over the October holidays to see what it might tell us in this regard.
While domestic travel has recovered to above 2019 levels, outbound travel has some way to go
Different sources estimate that 2024 outbound travel will be between 70 – 80% of 2019 levels. Fastdata estimates around 70% while China Trading Desk estimates closer to 80%. Overall, there is still some way to go for outbound travel to resume, as the table below shows.
Overall, it seems Chinese consumers are as willing as ever to spend money on travel, but the shift towards more domestic travel that happened during COVID is here to stay. Countries that have made visa-free entry possible for Chinese citizens have benefited – particularly Thailand and Singapore, and in 2024 we should see about 70-80% of the numbers we saw in 2019. A full recovery to pre-COVID numbers may take up to 2025. All good and positive signs, however, and a sign that consumer confidence is returning.
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